Crunching the Numbers

Step 3: Putting It All Together

Each crisis should now have an average Possible Impact between 1 and 10 and a Probability between 0 and 100%. 

Therefore, any resulting crisis impact can be expressed in the following terms: Impact/Probability.

For example, a high impact/high probability event may be scored as 8.2/65, 7.3/80, etc., with the impact expressed first, followed by the probability.

Do this for every conceivable event you can think of, creating a worksheet similar to the downloadable one here. Try to be as objective as possible, even though some of your answers may be at best, guesstimates. If you try to artificially minimize the impact or probability because it will be difficult to deal with, you’re only cheating yourself in the long run. You can find template versions of the charts and graphs here.

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