Crunching the Numbers

Step 2: Assess the Probability

What is the likelihood of the event occurring? Is it an almost certainty, a once in a blue moon chance, or somewhere in the middle? Assign a numerical value to the probability as a percentage on a scale from 0% (no chance at all) to 100% (absolute certainty). It’s O.K. to guess at this point, but if you do, err on the side of greater probability, not less. You can always adjust the numbers later, but it’s easy to minimize the chance something will happen because we like the comfort of best-case scenarios.

 

Scale of Probability

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