Crunching the Numbers
Step 2: Assess the Probability
What is the likelihood of the event occurring? Is it an almost certainty, a once in a blue moon chance, or somewhere in the middle? Assign a numerical value to the probability as a percentage on a scale from 0% (no chance at all) to 100% (absolute certainty). It’s O.K. to guess at this point, but if you do, err on the side of greater probability, not less. You can always adjust the numbers later, but it’s easy to minimize the chance something will happen because we like the comfort of best-case scenarios.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Why You Need to Plan Now!
3. The Four Stages of a Crisis
4. Assessing Impacts
5. Assessing Probabilities
6. Putting It All Together
7. Plotting the Results
8. Rinse & Repeat
9. Developing an Effective Plan
10. Plan Components
11. Crisis Response Modules
12. Decision Trees
13. Resuming Operations
14. Summary
15. Templates & Resources
